Independent editorial publication

August 2026

The Good in the World

A clearer view of human progress.

Technology

Where experts are scarce, AI is starting to extend their reach

A new World Bank assessment finds that AI may have an especially useful role in developing economies—not simply by automating work, but by helping scarce expertise reach more people.

Much of the debate around artificial intelligence has focused on what AI might replace.

The World Bank's 2026 assessment points toward another possibility:

AI may be particularly valuable where human expertise is already scarce.

It estimates that AI could meaningfully increase productivity in 16.2% of jobs in developing economies, while 4.5% of jobs are at risk of automation.

The opportunity isn't necessarily about building the world's largest AI models.

Smaller systems adapted to local needs could help doctors, teachers, farmers, businesses and governments make expertise available to far more people.

Artificial intelligence is usually discussed from the perspective of countries that already have large numbers of doctors, engineers, teachers and other highly trained professionals.

In much of the world, the problem is different.

Expertise itself is scarce.

A rural clinic may have too few medical specialists. A farmer may have limited access to agricultural advice. Government agencies may struggle to process records or deliver services efficiently.

That changes the question surrounding AI.

Instead of asking only “Which jobs could AI replace?”, another question becomes important:

“How many more people could an expert reach with AI helping them?”

The World Bank's World Development Report 2026: The Promise of Artificial Intelligence examines that possibility across developing economies.

Its analysis estimates that 16.2% of jobs in developing economies could experience meaningful productivity gains from AI.

That's surprisingly close to the 18.7% estimated for high-income countries.

Meanwhile, the report estimates that 4.5% of existing jobs in low- and middle-income countries are at risk of automation from generative AI, compared with 14.2% in high-income economies.

One reason is that many jobs in developing economies involve physical or interpersonal work that current AI systems cannot easily automate.

But AI can still augment the people doing those jobs.

The World Bank points to applications ranging from helping doctors diagnose disease and farmers make crop decisions to improving education, tax administration, welfare delivery and disaster response.

Importantly, developing countries do not necessarily need to build enormous frontier AI models themselves to benefit.

Existing models can be adapted to local languages, local information and specific problems.

That could make relatively inexpensive AI systems particularly valuable in places where adding thousands of additional specialists would otherwise take many years.

AI is spreading unusually quickly as well.

The World Bank notes that earlier general-purpose technologies took decades to diffuse widely into lower-income countries. AI services can spread much faster because much of the infrastructure and software already exists.

None of this guarantees that developing economies will capture those benefits.

But it points toward a version of the AI story that receives less attention:

The technology's biggest contribution in some places may not be replacing people. It may be helping the people already there do more.

What to Keep in Perspective

The 16.2% figure represents jobs that could potentially receive meaningful productivity gains. It is not evidence that productivity has already increased by that amount.

Access to electricity, reliable internet, computing infrastructure, digital skills and locally relevant data remains uneven.

AI can also produce incorrect information, reinforce bias, concentrate economic power and create new risks for employment, privacy and institutions.

The World Bank explicitly warns that AI could increase inequality if countries lack the infrastructure and capabilities necessary to use it effectively.

TGITW should therefore not frame this as “AI is solving development.”

The progress is narrower:

AI tools are already being adapted to practical problems, and the evidence suggests developing economies have significant opportunities to use them to augment scarce human capability.

The reporting for this story draws on the following scientific, institutional and independent sources.

Development date
August 4, 2026
First published
August 16, 2026
Updated
No updates
Last reviewed
August 16, 2026